Author(s): Muchlinski, David; Siroky, David; He, Jingrui; Kocher, Matthew
Abstract: The most commonly used statistical models of civil war onset fail to correctly predict most occurrences of this rare event in out-of-sample data. Statistical methods for the analysis of binary data,…Pp: 87-103Publication: Political AnalysisbrPublished: 2016Published date: 2016/edVol: 24Issue: 1DOI: 10.1093/pan/mpv024URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-analysis/article/comparing-ra…Publication: Political Analysis